COMMON SENSE

Final wrap up of secular markets and the dangers of “buy and hold” theory that wall street touts through it’s “market media matrix” networks.  If you review the videos, part one shows you how a typical depression era bear market behaves.  The price action is similar to that of the NASDAQ market, reaching a high of 5000 points only to lose 80%.   It has been 9 years, and yet the NASDAQ  has failed to return to new highs. However, the Dow Industrial Index made new highs.  The reason for the Dow Jones Industrial average reaching new highs was because this index is largely “commodity based”.   The stock exchanges changed the stocks of this index during the first cyclical bear market in 2000, putting a few high tech stock into the index and some diversified financial services.  The Fed has created the biggest liquidity trap in history of the world, by creating the housing bubble through mortgages and other creative financial products.   These problems have not been addressed, but the Fed and the Treasury have placed your children and grand children into bondage through confiscatory taxes.

None of the “toxic assets” have been sold, yet, the Wall Street Traders and you, being invested in your 401k plans, have been participate in this short term cyclical bull market since March of this year.   You have also been conditioned to “believe”  Wall Street” can solve all the financial crisis, even the politicians have been convinced.  However, if you have any doubts about Wall Street’s competence, then you should be worried about the next financial crisis.  Using some common sense, and some technical training, you can determine when the market is overbought and over sold.   I have developed some simple tools to get you started.  I will be doing the rest of the 9 myths about investing over the next several weeks.  If you have any questions,  please email me or leave comments on the blog.  You will have to be registered to leave comments, so go register and let me help you out of a loosing position.  You can follow me on twitter, which I send updates on 401k plans, insurance companies, banks, and other financially interesting story I find on the internet.

Doc

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The Buy and Hold Myth, part 5, looking at next week, the market will have  price reminisces of last years stock market.  Now, if you thought the market reached it’s low last year, you still suffered losses through the low in March 2009.  How would you like to learn how to avoid these unnecessary market drops, you will have to learn technical analysis to time the market during these short term cycles.  My blog post in Jan, 2006, I explain how the market media matrix manipulates into thinking there is always and eternal bull market.  I reviewed Jane Bryant Quinn article about the theory of “buy and hold” for long term investors.  I think you will find it interesting to know that if you missed the best 90 days of market gains, you would have a paltry$2.70 for every dollar invested.  If you followed the “buy and hold” theory, you would have $75 for every dollar invested.  Now that sounds like a good case for buy and hold, right?

However, if you would have missed the worst 90 days of the market, your gains would have been $1694!   I guess Wall Street’s “market media matrix” does want you to know about that!

• A.  buy, hold, hope for 42 years for 90 good days in the market, results $75.
• B.  time the market yourself and miss the best 90 performing days, results $2.70
• C.  use Doctrader’s  “red signal line” to avoid the worst performing 90 days of the market, results $1694.

Raise your hand if you can see which choice you want!

Introducing the “red signal line” to determine if the market are in a long term bull market or a long term bear market.

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The buy and hold myth continues with part 2 of 6 explaining how long term investors are gambling on their family’s financial future.   Barrack Obama urges “common sense” in financial regulations.

Tuesday September 15 2009

US President Barack Obama, speaking a year after the Lehman Brothers‘ collapse, warned against complacency as the financial crisis ebbs and said the US must have a new regime of “common-sense” regulations to avoid another market meltdown.”

I am urging those with 401k’s, 403b plans to use a little common sense when you are choosing a long term buy and hold strategy. During this Secular Bear market, lasting 18 years, you should take steps to protect any gains you have left.

Technorati Tags: 401k, 9 myths, baby boomers, bailout, banking, bull market, buy and hold, common sense financial, investing, Investment, market, market cycles, obama, part 2, retirement, technical analysis

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July Highs for the Year

The nimble programmed trading that has been selling 7 to 3 has dramatically been reduced for the last 3 weeks. It seems that programmed trading has abated since the highs earlier in the month of June. Since the high volume spike on the club chart has not been matched with an equal number of share being bought, the market has turned decidedly bearish despite the “high faux earning reports” generated by accounting tricks and the market media matrix. In my previous post, I warned long term investors to liquidate 1/3 of their positions as prices crossed down through the harmonic stock clock signal lines. The Dow Jones Index is struggling to keep the bull market attitude, however the yellow signal line above the red signal line should cross down this week completing a failed triple bottom. Unfortunately for the long term investors who have received their quarterly reports which ended in June, the market’s window dressing has not instilled a wide spread fear of losing all their paper gains over the last two years. Some individual stocks have retraced their advancement back to the 2002 lows, which should lead to some capitulation , mainly in the Nasd stocks. Looking at the Russell 2000 stocks, the bottom 500 stocks offer a glimpse in the future of the current leaders in the small capitalization stocks. The Russell 2000 Index is also testing a triple bottom with failure leading to a capitulation. The Standards and Poors 500 Index has 212 stocks trading be the harmonic stock clock signal lines. The Nasd market is in capitulation phase which should conclude by the end of the year when 90% of the stocks are trading below the red signal. Currently there are 78 stocks out of 100 which are trading below the red signal line.

Traders have had a tough time because of the “volatility” and geopolitical ramification. Those who are trading should love this market, just follow the harmonic stock clock signals for the short term trend by either going short or long for quick profits. Pick any Nasd 100 stock and compare the chart with my Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines. You will see the direction of the trend, short and long term. When the signal lines cross downward, there is a harmonic relationship between the lines. Since a picture is worth 1000 words, the trend should be easily identified. The short term trend always is based on the green signal line. The yellow signal line will be the resistance or support of short term prices depending on the positive or negative slope of the yellow signal line. A positives slope using the hands of a clock will be pointing to 1,2, or 3 o‘clock. The long term sustained trend being in the 2 ‘o’clock range. A negative sloping signal line will have the hands pointing from 4, 5 or 6 ‘o’clock. The sustained long term down trend is when the yellow signal line pointing at 4 o’clock. Remember the market will use these signal lines as support and resistance, bouncing off these signal lines like a pin ball bouncing off bumpers. You should see prices touching the green signal line within 9-18 trading days for “grounding” as explained in my book. You will also see super bounces and super retractions when price trade through 1 or more of these signal lines.

Speaking of my book, I have not finished the updates and will plan for a September release, have been having too much fun trading. There are many changes with technology and electronic publishing and am thinking of doing an online tutorial program or using the website as a training tool.

Lastly, if you have been loosing money trading and are frustrated, take a break, go on vacation and relax, these are turbulent times.

Usually, 80% of the time the market has reached it’s high for the year in the July, then slowly sells off during the last part of the year. The Bernanke bounce should not attributed to his testimony, but on program trading covering their shorts with option expiration ending last Friday. The fact that there was no follow through on the next day indicates it was a short squeeze covering play, nothing else. Turn off the Market Media Matrix, and concentrate on following the signal lines either short or long. We are at a point in time, where some of the signal lines are crossing and beginning to turn negative, so there will be volatility until the after the August Fed’s meeting.

Some stocks to take note of for the next week are Yahoo, Intel, Dell, Microsoft, IBM, Citicorp, Proctor and Gamble, 3 M, Honeywell, Verizon, Walmart, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Exxon, Boeing, United Technology, Altria and Google.

Good Luck
God Bless
Doc

Doc’s Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctrader’s Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own “due diligence” when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

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