COMMON SENSE » bull market

Buy and Hold Myth Part 6

Doctrader — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 21:56:23 +0000

Final wrap up of secular markets and the dangers of “buy and hold” theory that wall street touts through it’s “market media matrix” networks. If you review the videos, part one shows you how a typical depression era bear market behaves. The price action is similar to that of the NASDAQ market, reaching a high of 5000 points only to lose 80%. It has been 9 years, and yet the NASDAQ has failed to return to new highs. However, the Dow Industrial Index made new highs. The reason for the Dow Jones Industrial average reaching new highs was because this index is largely “commodity based”. The stock exchanges changed the stocks of this index during the first cyclical bear market in 2000, putting a few high tech stock into the index and some diversified financial services. The Fed has created the biggest liquidity trap in history of the world, by creating the housing bubble through mortgages and other creative financial products. These problems have not been addressed, but the Fed and the Treasury have placed your children and grand children into bondage through confiscatory taxes.

None of the “toxic assets” have been sold, yet, the Wall Street Traders and you, being invested in your 401k plans, have been participate in this short term cyclical bull market since March of this year. You have also been conditioned to “believe” Wall Street” can solve all the financial crisis, even the politicians have been convinced. However, if you have any doubts about Wall Street’s competence, then you should be worried about the next financial crisis. Using some common sense, and some technical training, you can determine when the market is overbought and over sold. I have developed some simple tools to get you started. I will be doing the rest of the 9 myths about investing over the next several weeks. If you have any questions, please email me or leave comments on the blog. You will have to be registered to leave comments, so go register and let me help you out of a loosing position. You can follow me on twitter, which I send updates on 401k plans, insurance companies, banks, and other financially interesting story I find on the internet.

Doc

Technorati Tags: 9 myths, baby boomers, bull market, investing, Investment, market, market cycles, technical analysis

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Buy and Hold Myth Part 5

Doctrader — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 11:39:21 +0000

The Buy and Hold Myth, part 5, looking at next week, the market will have price reminisces of last years stock market. Now, if you thought the market reached it’s low last year, you still suffered losses through the low in March 2009. How would you like to learn how to avoid these unnecessary market drops, you will have to learn technical analysis to time the market during these short term cycles. My blog post in Jan, 2006, I explain how the market media matrix manipulates into thinking there is always and eternal bull market. I reviewed Jane Bryant Quinn article about the theory of “buy and hold” for long term investors. I think you will find it interesting to know that if you missed the best 90 days of market gains, you would have a paltry$2.70 for every dollar invested. If you followed the “buy and hold” theory, you would have $75 for every dollar invested. Now that sounds like a good case for buy and hold, right?

However, if you would have missed the worst 90 days of the market, your gains would have been $1694! I guess Wall Street’s “market media matrix” does want you to know about that!

A. buy, hold, hope for 42 years for 90 good days in the market, results $75.
B. time the market yourself and miss the best 90 performing days, results $2.70
C. use Doctrader’s “red signal line” to avoid the worst performing 90 days of the market, results $1694.

Raise your hand if you can see which choice you want!

Introducing the “red signal line” to determine if the market are in a long term bull market or a long term bear market.

Technorati Tags: 9 myths, Analysis, baby boomers, bull market, financial, investing, Investment, market, market media matrix, Part 5, technical analysis

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Buy and Hold Myth Part 2

Doctrader — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:57:51 +0000

The buy and hold myth continues with part 2 of 6 explaining how long term investors are gambling on their family’s financial future. Barrack Obama urges “common sense” in financial regulations.

Tuesday September 15 2009

US President Barack Obama, speaking a year after the Lehman Brothers‘ collapse, warned against complacency as the financial crisis ebbs and said the US must have a new regime of “common-sense” regulations to avoid another market meltdown.”

I am urging those with 401k’s, 403b plans to use a little common sense when you are choosing a long term buy and hold strategy. During this Secular Bear market, lasting 18 years, you should take steps to protect any gains you have left.

Technorati Tags: 401k, 9 myths, baby boomers, bailout, banking, bull market, buy and hold, common sense financial, investing, Investment, market, market cycles, obama, part 2, retirement, technical analysis

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July Highs for the Year

Doctrader — Sun, 23 Jul 2006 18:33:00 +0000

July Highs for the Year

The nimble programmed trading that has been selling 7 to 3 has dramatically been reduced for the last 3 weeks. It seems that programmed trading has abated since the highs earlier in the month of June. Since the high volume spike on the club chart has not been matched with an equal number of share being bought, the market has turned decidedly bearish despite the “high faux earning reports” generated by accounting tricks and the market media matrix. In my previous post, I warned long term investors to liquidate 1/3 of their positions as prices crossed down through the harmonic stock clock signal lines. The Dow Jones Index is struggling to keep the bull market attitude, however the yellow signal line above the red signal line should cross down this week completing a failed triple bottom. Unfortunately for the long term investors who have received their quarterly reports which ended in June, the market’s window dressing has not instilled a wide spread fear of losing all their paper gains over the last two years. Some individual stocks have retraced their advancement back to the 2002 lows, which should lead to some capitulation , mainly in the Nasd stocks. Looking at the Russell 2000 stocks, the bottom 500 stocks offer a glimpse in the future of the current leaders in the small capitalization stocks. The Russell 2000 Index is also testing a triple bottom with failure leading to a capitulation. The Standards and Poors 500 Index has 212 stocks trading be the harmonic stock clock signal lines. The Nasd market is in capitulation phase which should conclude by the end of the year when 90% of the stocks are trading below the red signal. Currently there are 78 stocks out of 100 which are trading below the red signal line.

Traders have had a tough time because of the “volatility” and geopolitical ramification. Those who are trading should love this market, just follow the harmonic stock clock signals for the short term trend by either going short or long for quick profits. Pick any Nasd 100 stock and compare the chart with my Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines. You will see the direction of the trend, short and long term. When the signal lines cross downward, there is a harmonic relationship between the lines. Since a picture is worth 1000 words, the trend should be easily identified. The short term trend always is based on the green signal line. The yellow signal line will be the resistance or support of short term prices depending on the positive or negative slope of the yellow signal line. A positives slope using the hands of a clock will be pointing to 1,2, or 3 o‘clock. The long term sustained trend being in the 2 ‘o’clock range. A negative sloping signal line will have the hands pointing from 4, 5 or 6 ‘o’clock. The sustained long term down trend is when the yellow signal line pointing at 4 o’clock. Remember the market will use these signal lines as support and resistance, bouncing off these signal lines like a pin ball bouncing off bumpers. You should see prices touching the green signal line within 9-18 trading days for “grounding” as explained in my book. You will also see super bounces and super retractions when price trade through 1 or more of these signal lines.

Speaking of my book, I have not finished the updates and will plan for a September release, have been having too much fun trading. There are many changes with technology and electronic publishing and am thinking of doing an online tutorial program or using the website as a training tool.

Lastly, if you have been loosing money trading and are frustrated, take a break, go on vacation and relax, these are turbulent times.

Usually, 80% of the time the market has reached it’s high for the year in the July, then slowly sells off during the last part of the year. The Bernanke bounce should not attributed to his testimony, but on program trading covering their shorts with option expiration ending last Friday. The fact that there was no follow through on the next day indicates it was a short squeeze covering play, nothing else. Turn off the Market Media Matrix, and concentrate on following the signal lines either short or long. We are at a point in time, where some of the signal lines are crossing and beginning to turn negative, so there will be volatility until the after the August Fed’s meeting.

Some stocks to take note of for the next week are Yahoo, Intel, Dell, Microsoft, IBM, Citicorp, Proctor and Gamble, 3 M, Honeywell, Verizon, Walmart, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Exxon, Boeing, United Technology, Altria and Google.

Good Luck
God Bless
Doc

Doc’s Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctrader’s Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own “due diligence” when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Technorati Tags: bull market, Early Warning, economics, July Highs, market cycles, Russell 2000 stocks, window dressing

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Still, No Capitulation For the Bulls

Doctrader — Mon, 12 Jun 2006 00:26:00 +0000

Still, No Capitulation For the Bulls

Many have asked for help with their portfolios in view of the last two weeks of a minor correction. The simple answer is that for the last 3 years programmed trading has ruled the market. The derivative markets have artificially created the illusion of a bull market by supporting prices at the 50 day moving average. Now that the Fed has raised short term interest rates up for 16-17 consecutive times, institutional money managers are taking their profits. Meanwhile, small investors who have been late to the party are buying stocks on the dips trying to ride the bull to new 5-6 year highs. The small investor does not have a chance when swimming in the ocean of sharks, ie. (hedge funds and institutional money managers).

I am troubled that those who will be hurt by the coming capitulation are not paying attention to their long term investments inside their pension plans. The high level of apathy with these assets will lead to more “stock market” scandals in the months ahead. You should never trust anyone with your hard earned money, especially your stock broker, your insurance agent, and your financial planner.
The problems with these advisers is they all have their self interests in mind by selling you something. The stock broker sells you stocks to buy, which his firm probably “makes a market in” and he makes a commission. The insurance agent is the most devious of all, because his favorite arsenal of assault on your assets is his ability to sell you life insurance as an investment, called “variable life.” The insurance agent also has a “financial planning’ vehicle called an annuity with many hidden charges and withdrawal fees. Some insurance agents are even selling annuities as a “tax shelters” to roll over your pension plans if you are retiring, guaranteeing you a loss of principal when you activate your payment choices. Your financial planner will charge you for his time or he will receive a commission on any financial products as part of your financial plan. He may sell you a combination of insurance, stocks, and annuities to supplement his personal income.

Your financial assets are too important to let others steer you toward bad investment decisions, by using the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines, you can determine when to take a profit on your long term investments, not your broker, insurance agent or financial planner.

The following rules for stock brokers. Never accept phone calls with a “hot stock” tip. You determine your stop loss and when you should protect your profits.

The rules for insurance agents: Look at last month’s statement for your variable accounts, and call the 800 number to see what the values are today. If you can’t sleep at night because the value has dropped too much, then you should probably switch your money into a money market account instead of the stock portfolio you have been in. If you have a good stock charting program like telechart 2000, you can apply the Harmonic Stock Clock signal lines to mutual funds and some of the major holdings within those funds to see how the prices are holding up.

Remember, if the yellow signal line has turned downward below the red signal line, institutional investors are selling forcing prices lower.

The rules for financial planners: Use only fee based planners, those who charge per plan or charge by the hour. Don’t let him combined two or more services in one product, like life insurance and investments, or savings, or annuities and tax shelters. This rule should apply to insurance agents also, who like to combine products like insurance and so called savings plans.
Looking at the Harmonic Stock Clock’s Signal Lines, you can see most of the Indexes are ready to capitulate below the red signal line. In most cases, once the yellow signal line crosses the red signal line, a cyclical bear market will begin, just like the 1973 cyclical bear. The result were a net loss for the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Index was in excess of 40% from the previous highs. The 1973 cyclical bear market lasted approximately 18 months from Jan 73 to Oct. 74. Long term investors failed to see it happening until it was too late to protect their profits from the 1970 short term cyclical bull market. I suspect things will be much worst today with the effects of programmed trading, hedge funds, and a derivatives, such as ETF’s, sector funds and options.

Good Luck to all
Doc

5 Day Market Forecast June 11- June 20th

Dow Jones Index Forecast: high 11445, low range 10808, pivot point 10951.

NASDAQ Forecast: High range 2198, low range 2114 pivot point 2149.
CRB Index Forecast High range 350 low range 338 pivot point 343.
S&P 500 Forecast: High range 1279, low range 1241 pivot point 1257.
U. S. Dollar Forecast: High range 86.69 low range 84.29 : pivot point at 85.14
Russell 2000 Index Forecast: High range 727, low range 690, pivot point 706.
Gold Index Forecast: High range 645, low range 607 pivot points 622.
Oil Service Index Forecast: High range 219 low range 197 pivot point 205
Nikei Index : High range 15798, Low range 148680, pivot point 15093

Doc’s Harmonic stock Clock should be used for Educational and training purposes only.

No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own “due diligence” when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

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