COMMON SENSE » market cycles

Buy and Hold Myth Part 6

Doctrader — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 21:56:23 +0000

Final wrap up of secular markets and the dangers of “buy and hold” theory that wall street touts through it’s “market media matrix” networks. If you review the videos, part one shows you how a typical depression era bear market behaves. The price action is similar to that of the NASDAQ market, reaching a high of 5000 points only to lose 80%. It has been 9 years, and yet the NASDAQ has failed to return to new highs. However, the Dow Industrial Index made new highs. The reason for the Dow Jones Industrial average reaching new highs was because this index is largely “commodity based”. The stock exchanges changed the stocks of this index during the first cyclical bear market in 2000, putting a few high tech stock into the index and some diversified financial services. The Fed has created the biggest liquidity trap in history of the world, by creating the housing bubble through mortgages and other creative financial products. These problems have not been addressed, but the Fed and the Treasury have placed your children and grand children into bondage through confiscatory taxes.

None of the “toxic assets” have been sold, yet, the Wall Street Traders and you, being invested in your 401k plans, have been participate in this short term cyclical bull market since March of this year. You have also been conditioned to “believe” Wall Street” can solve all the financial crisis, even the politicians have been convinced. However, if you have any doubts about Wall Street’s competence, then you should be worried about the next financial crisis. Using some common sense, and some technical training, you can determine when the market is overbought and over sold. I have developed some simple tools to get you started. I will be doing the rest of the 9 myths about investing over the next several weeks. If you have any questions, please email me or leave comments on the blog. You will have to be registered to leave comments, so go register and let me help you out of a loosing position. You can follow me on twitter, which I send updates on 401k plans, insurance companies, banks, and other financially interesting story I find on the internet.

Doc

Technorati Tags: 9 myths, baby boomers, bull market, investing, Investment, market, market cycles, technical analysis

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Buy and Hold Myth part 4

Doctrader — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 05:21:46 +0000

Part 4 of the Buy and Hold Myth series shows the current secular bear market, beginning in 2000-2003. The beginning of every Secular market, lasting 18 years, begins with the short term cyclical market (lasting 18-36 months) of the same type.

Currently, if you measure your current rate of return since the year 2000, you may you will be disappointed. The next few days, you should receive your quarterly 401k statements. Do you dare to open them up and compare your results since the last quarterly statement? To read more about my Market Cycle theory check out my blog post last year, warning investors, at “What is the Weimar Republic?”

Technorati Tags: 401k, 9 myths, bear markets, buy and hold, funds, investing, Investment, market cycles, retirement, secular market, technical analysis, Weimar Republic

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Myths about Buying and Holding Part 3

Doctrader — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 00:46:59 +0000

The Myths about Buying and Holding Stocks for the long term is just that, a Myth! In Part 3 of the Video series I am show you where the Baby Boomers begin moving the market, first as dependents, then as consumers. My blog post last year about the Great Depression or Recession I wrote, ”

Currently, the demographics are unclear relating to the baby boomers, yet by Nov. 4th, when the elections are closed will there be riots on main street or a selling riots on Wall Street?”

Looking at the stock market for the previous secular bear market, you can see for yourself, the market didn’t make new highs, but was stagnant. The Demographics of the Baby Boomers, were still in the early stages of getting their first jobs, starting their families, and begin to invest through their company’s 401k plans. The baby boomers were early adapters of the new technologies to increase their productivity.

Coming out of the 1966-1984 secular bear market, they begin the Greatest Bull market that will never be repeated again. Stay tuned for Part 4 of the “Buy and Hold Myth”.

Technorati Tags: 9 myths, baby boomers, investing, Investment, market, market cycles, part 3, stock, technical analysis

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Buy and Hold Myth Part 2

Doctrader — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 18:57:51 +0000

The buy and hold myth continues with part 2 of 6 explaining how long term investors are gambling on their family’s financial future. Barrack Obama urges “common sense” in financial regulations.

Tuesday September 15 2009

US President Barack Obama, speaking a year after the Lehman Brothers‘ collapse, warned against complacency as the financial crisis ebbs and said the US must have a new regime of “common-sense” regulations to avoid another market meltdown.”

I am urging those with 401k’s, 403b plans to use a little common sense when you are choosing a long term buy and hold strategy. During this Secular Bear market, lasting 18 years, you should take steps to protect any gains you have left.

Technorati Tags: 401k, 9 myths, baby boomers, bailout, banking, bull market, buy and hold, common sense financial, investing, Investment, market, market cycles, obama, part 2, retirement, technical analysis

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9 Common Financial Myths:: Uncommon Financial Secrets

Doctrader — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 21:16:14 +0000

The 9 common financial myths have been propagated by the market media matrix to maintain the status quo on your financial future. Last year I issued a warning to long term investors, particularly those with 401k plans and other long term investments. Over the next 90 days, I will be posting videos to help you unravel these myths about investing, insurance, and the financial markets. In my opinion, the next 90 days will determine your family’s financial future.

These 9 myths are:

Long Term Buy and Hold Myth
Diversify your investments
Professional Money management
Researching / Homework stocks
Market Timing
Global Economy
Mergers Myth
Stock Splits

The first financial myth should be addressed over the next week when you receive your end of quarter reports. The biggest financial myth is the theory of “buy and hold” for long term. In today’s age of instant financial info, the myth is busted! I will show you historical facts that dispel the “buy and hold’ for the long term, is nothing more than one of the best kept financial insider secrets over the last 30 years!

The last 30 years, has seen a significant rise in what the financial insiders call “dumb money” in the stock market. The insider definition of “dumb money” is the money that is pumped into the stock market by 50% of the population through their 401k’s and 403b plans.

The employers have changed their retirement benefits from a “defined benefit” to a “defined contribution” plans. A defined benefit plan places your retirement completely under the control of your company. Under a defined benefit plan, your employer specify what will be your retirement amount based on seniority and years of service. Since the company is responsible, they have to pay for these benefit out of the company’s profits. Guess what? The companies that still have defined benefit programs are struggling to fund the defined benefit plans, because they have to contribute “x” number of dollars now, for future retirees. Most state, Federal, and highly unionized companies have this type of plan. Yet, most of these defined benefit plans DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH FUNDS TO COVER FUTURE RETIREES!

A defined contribution plan allows the employee determine how much money to contribute into a his own retirement account. If the employee doesn’t contribute anything to his own plan, he will have nothing at retirement. The company saves money by not using current company’s profits to fund future retirees accounts. More on types of plans later, but for now, let’s just say that everyone is an investor, long term or short term by default!

If you are responsible for your own retirement plan, how much time have spent on reviewing your plan? Is it only the 30 minutes per year when deciding your choices of investments? Do you find these choices confusing? Well, that is the purpose of the website to provide you with some common sense answers of the financial services industry.

Let’s start with the a 6 part video series dispelling the buy and hold long term myth.

Part 1, Myths Buy and Hold Part 1

Technorati Tags: 9 myths, Analysis, dumb money, Invest, market cycles, retirement, technical analysis

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