However, the rational reality cannot hide from the sad performance of General Electric’s (GE) share price.  It is the worst performer within the Dow Jones Index over the last 9 years.  After all, isn’t that what CNBC viewer want, the “long term investor’s point of view.  Well, maybe they have a financial interest in becoming cheerleaders for the Dow Jones Index, since General Electric owns CNBC network. In fact, the worst performing stocks in the Dow Jones Index over the last 9 years, for long term investors, is self explained in this chart.

Is it ironic that none of the CNBC cheerleaders have shown you the actual long term results the Dow Jones Index?  What did you expect?  The never told you it was time to sell, only to buy, buy, buy.  I think their favorite line for morning guests are, ” So, what are you buying now?”  The predictable irrationality good ole boys are only too happy to tell them what they have already bought.  So you will place your orders to buy the stocks they already own.    If you look at the next chart, there are only 10 stocks of the Dow Jones Index which have a positive return over the last 9 years!

Notice the list of stocks in the top 10.  Who would have thought Caterpillar (CAT) would have out performed a technology firm.  I would think that given the furious buying activity within the NASDAQ market, the leaders would be technology stocks.  Someone asked me 9 years ago would the NASDAQ every get back to 5000 points.   I said, sure, around 2018-2020!   I am going to revise that to 2036 for the NASDAQ…. maybe.  Hey, look at the Japanese market, still in the tank from it’s all time highs.  Remember last summer, all of you were complaining about the “greedy oil companies” gouging you at the pump?  I told the complainers, “you had better hope that gas prices rise to $10 a gallon, other wise your 401k plan will be cut by 50%.   Which has more money in it, you gas tank or your 401k plan?  The Fed was trying to create inflation at that time, but they are always behind the curve!  Now they are creating the biggest liquidity trap in the modern  world.

Now the stock market is rebounding only because of the massive government bailouts and those who “day trade” the stock market with programmed trading.  The stock market has been manipulated once again by the “Feds Plunge Protection Team“, which buys stocks and bonds.  Why, just last week, the Treasury issued bonds, which no one wanted.  So the bond were sold to a primary bond dealer…. can anyone guess who’s the dealer?  I bet you a dollar, it was someone who received TARP money!  The Treasury bonds were then sold back to the Federal Reserve in 10 days!   Can you say “Enron?”  Once again, the middle class will pay for the parties for those on Wall Street.

Despite the Irrational Recovery of the stock market, looking at the stock returns on the Dow Jones Index, does not give me hope for the future.   None of the CNBC cheerleader have mention the words “toxic assets”, nor the 9 million mortgage foreclosures.  The commercial real estate collapse has yet to materialize.  Quietly kept under cover as the largest commercial property owners go to the Fed and Treasury to receive bailouts!  You have to understand, all markets are connected easily manipulated.  Everyone is talking about the “Wiemar Republic“, and the causes of hyper-inflation on the economy.  I don’t think we are heading for hyper inflation, but the “Mother of all Depression.”   The economist who are predicting hyper inflation have failed to remember the “baby boomers”, and they are “mad as hell!”    What are the baby boomers going to do?  They were told that if they have invested in a 401k plan, bought a home, maybe a second one at the lake,  they could retire in luxury and travel around the world!  You can bet, Wall Street is laughing all the way to the “Hampton’s” with all they money they have made off the 401k “dumb money.”   The Wall Street insiders call 401k plans “dumb money” because it just keeps pouring in as long as people have jobs.  Some point in time, when people begin to loose their jobs, they will be forced to take some of the “dumb money” out of the 401k plans.   When the baby boomers hit 59 1/2…. there could be massive withdrawals from these plans.  Can you stand another 50% drop in your “long term investment?” Will you be able to work another 20 years before you can retire?

I feel, we have less than 90 days to put a plan together to protect your ass…ets.  The first step will be the hardest for you to take, because it involve learning how to manage your own money, while you still have some.  I am putting the finishing touches on a free DVD to help you get started with the next financial disaster that’s coming.

Please post some comments at the end of this blog.

What financial  information would you like to learn?

Doctrader

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Hi Doc,
I am interested in day trading the Emini S&P or Emini Dow. I have a copy of your book (HSC) and could use some help in trade entry and trade management. Is there anything you could help me with?

• HSC Base Numbers
• HSC Time Zones
• HSC Heartbeat

Doc’s Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.

This site should be used for Educational purposes only.

No advice is given. No recommendations given.

You are considered to be over 18 years old.

Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own “due diligence” when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

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The market is walking a fine line between higher inflation and a depression. The liquidly trap that the Federal Reserve has created with the housing market will resolve by the end of this year. On the other side of the line is a 1930’s depression era recession which could last beyond the retirement years of the “baby boomers. The depression era threat is real and the new Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has studied the depression era as a hobby. His recommendations for curing the depression earned him the nickname, “helicopter Ben”, since his recommendations are to drop money from helicopters to spur economic growth in face of a depression. But first, he will have to tighten monetary supply before inflation sparks a Jimmy Carter economy. The wild fires of inflation in the housing market has spread a temporary wealth effect among unsuspecting long term stock holders. The next few months will determine if there is inflation or deflation within the economy. The severity of the housing bubble collapse will determined the next phase of inflation or deflation. Even Greenspan issued a warning last year,
Alan Greenspan just said in his speech to National Association for Business Economics on September 27, 2005, ‘..history cautions that extended periods of low concern about credit risk have invariably been followed by reversal, with an attendant fall in the prices of risky assets. Such developments apparently reflect not only market dynamics but also the all-too-evident alternating and infectious bouts of human euphoria and distress and the instability they engender.’
Remembering 2001, businesses were spending furiously on R&D and building factories. Businesses always have an incentive to overbuild because any losses can be offset in later years if they are wrong about economic conditions with one time charge write offs. The Chip manufactures had $2 Billion dollars invested all over the world with building new facilities and they were completely blindsided by the falling prices of chips in the coming years. The same thing has happened before in the home builders, who have a notorious reputation of overbuilding their markets. Similarly homebuilders are continuing building houses at a furious pace despite the length of time for the average home being on the market, now over 5 months. Meanwhile, corporate insiders are selling their company’s stock at accelerated levels. Others insiders are moving nearly 1 billion dollars a day to off shore bank accounts according to trim tabs.com.The inverted yield curve is an ominous sign and should be the signal flare for everyone to lock in profits and move money into a cash position. You can buy a short term (2-3 months) treasury bill/bond that will pay a higher interest rate than 30 year bond! This is a clear sign that something is about to change, very drastically. I explained the global financial pecking order of the financial market as Forex, commodities, bonds, and lastly stock market where the effects of inflation or deflation can be measured.
The first stages of inflation have happened with the devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. The second stage is occurring now with inflating commodity prices. The third stage will begin over the next 3 months by inflating long term bond yields. Lastly, the stock market will begin to feel the effects of inflation by October of this year. I hope you are prepared for the next coming bear market.
If you remember 2001, just before the bubble popped, there were several wild swings in market valuations before the final collapse. I warned members of the yahoo group about the coming collapse July and August of 2001. So the inevitable market cycle returns to The Fed has a Six Shooter Only posted on August 21, 2001. How many interest rate hikes have we had over the last year?

6 year market performance summary

The Dow Jones Index from Jan 2000 is down -4.5%
The S&P 500 Index is down – 11%
The NASDAQ Index is down -42%
The U.S. Dollar Index is down -18%
The SOX Index measuring computer chip manufactures – 30%
The Oil Service Index is up 128%
The Gold Index is up 98$
The Commodity Research Bureau Index is up 56%
The Russell 2000 small cap Index is up 46%

The special price will only last 4 more days until the end of the month. I will personally annotate 3 of your charts when you purchase the Harmonic Stock Clock book. Time is critical if you are a long term investor. The month of March has not been kind to the “buy and hold” investors. This is the longest cyclical bull market in history without a 10% correction, since rebounding off the lows in October lows in 2002. Yet, the market has failed to make new all time high over the last 6 years. I believe that programmed computerized trading has been the culprit of this sustained trading range. If I am correct, then the correction could have far reaching effects, back to the lows of 2002.

The market will have valuation gyrations and you can capitalize on these swings if you have a game plan. The Harmonic Stock Clock will give you clear signals when to take profits.
The last 4 days only, over $600 worth of information at this low price.
God Bless
Doc

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Doc’s Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own “due diligence” when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

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Harmonic Stock Market Forecast

If price targets are reached within the next two weeks, a new target prices will be posted for these important indices. All price ranges are based upon the Harmonic Stock Clock Signal Lines, using a combination of technical analysis and my proprietary signal, Harmonic Heartbeat” for short term and long term price targets. The Harmonic Stock Clock Signal lines can be applied to stocks, futures, commodities, and currencies markets. You can see the support and resistance of my harmonic stock clock signal lines on these indices as a proxy to your trading vehicles. If you would like to know more about the Harmonic Stock Clock trading and investing, you can visit my website at: http://www.doctrader.comand www. harmonicstockclock.com.

Previous post:

Dow plus or minus 400 target points,
Start range of the Dow Jones Index: 10862, lows 10737, high 11131, total actual points 394 points.

New Dow Jones Index Forecast: target points 474 High range 11173, low range 10702

NASDAQ plus or minus 150 points, start range of the NASDAQ: 2311, .lows range 2232

High range 2294. Actual range 79 points
New NASDAQ Forecast: High range 2308, low range 2227 total points 81

Commodity CRB Index plus or minus 32 points, start high range 350, lows 319, actual total 31 points

New CRB Index Forecast High range 346.88 low range 315.67 total points 31

Sp500 plus or minus 55 points, start 1280, high range 1289 lows range 1253 total points actual 36 points.

New S&P 500 Forecast: High range 1289, low range 1253 total points 36 points

U.S. Dollar plus or minus 3 points, start 88.91, high range 91.01 total points 2.1

New U. S. Dollar Forecast: High range 91.72, low range 88.53 total points 3.19

Russ2k plus or minus 72 points, starting range 733, high trading range 735, low trading range 708, actual 25 points.

New Russell 2000 Index Forecast: High range 737, low range704, total points 33.

Gold Index plus or minus 104 points, start range 571, High range 575 lows 534, actual 41 points.

New Gold Index Forecast: High range 570, low range 530 total points 40.

Oil Service Index plus or minus 55 points, start 221, and High range 223, Low range
188 actual total points 35

New Oil Service Index Forecast: High range 219.41 low range 183.09 total point range 36

God Bless

Doc

Doc’s Harmonic stock Clock is intended for stocks, options, futures, commodities, and currencies trading.
This site should be used for Educational purposes only.
No advice is given. No recommendations given.
You are considered to be over 18 years old.
Doctraders Harmonic Stock Clock is based on technical market indicators which may predict short term and long term market trend reversals. Doctrader is not an investment adviser but has been involved in the markets since 1985. No system of trading or investing can prevent losses, you should do your own “due diligence” when determining the suitability of the information contained within this or other websites mentioned in this blog.

Use all Information on this site at your own risk.

God Bless

Doctrader

Technorati Tags: harmonic stock clock, Market Forecast, programmed trading, Russell 2000 Index

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